Link: We've updated our electoral map, as Trump's fortunes dwindle - LA Times


As Donald Trump's standing in polls continues to slide, we've updated our electoral map to reflect his diminishing chances.

The big change: Arizona now moves to the Toss Up column. Until now, we've listed the state as "likely Republican," reflecting the partisan lean it has long had. Arizona has gone to the GOP in nine of the past 10 elections, with Bill Clinton's reelection in 1996 the only exception.

But this year, a combination of shifting demographics and Donald Trump's unpopularity have changed the picture. Arizona has a growing Latino population which already was starting to change the state's political complexion before this year. Trump's popularity has shifted things further.

The state's senior senator, John McCain, who is up for reelection this year, dropped his endorsement of Trump a week ago, after the video surfaced of Trump bragging that he could get away with assaulting women. The state's other senator, Jeff Flake, also a Republican, had never endorsed Trump.

Taking Arizona out of the Republican column reduces Trump's electoral college vote to 180. Hillary Clinton leads in states with 279 electoral votes -- nine more than needed for victory. The fives states we list as tossups have 79 electoral votes.

The other move is Utah, which we've shifted from solidly red to the "likely" category.

Trump is deeply unpopular with many Mormon voters in the state. Two third party candidates -- Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Evan McMullin, a Republican former congressional staff member running as an independent -- have siphoned many votes away from Trump.

One recent poll for the Deseret News, showed the third party candidates eating so deeply into the GOP vote that Trump and Clinton were tied. Other surveys continue to show Trump ahead in a state that Republicans last failed to carry in 1964, the year of Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide.

We're keeping an eye on Florida and North Carolina. Recent polls consistently have shown Clinton leading in both states, but by very small margins. For now, we continue to list both states as tossups, along with Ohio, where polls are mixed, and Iowa, where Trump has held a small lead.